Trade & Tariffs

New Zealand is one of the world's most trade-dependent developed economies. With a population of just 5 million, the domestic market is tiny—farmers must export to survive. Food and fibre products make up over 80% of goods exports, making agriculture the backbone of NZ's international trade. In 2024-25, the sector is forecast to generate $59.9 billion in export revenue, with dairy alone contributing $27 billion.

NZ's export profile has shifted dramatically toward Asia over the past two decades. In 2000, Asian markets took 40% of exports; by 2024, that had risen to over 50%. China alone accounts for 25% of all goods exports, making it NZ's largest trading partner by a significant margin. This concentration creates both opportunity and risk.

NZ has been a pioneer in free trade agreements, signing deals across Asia-Pacific and beyond. The government's goal is to have 90% of exports covered by FTAs by 2030. Recent wins include the EU and UK deals, while the US remains the major gap—no FTA exists despite the US being NZ's third-largest trading partner.

In August 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 15% reciprocal tariff on NZ exports—higher than the baseline 10% applied to most countries because NZ runs a trade surplus with the US. The tariff affects meat, dairy, wine, and other key exports. A partial rollback in November 2025 removed tariffs on beef, offal, and kiwifruit (~25% of NZ's US exports), but broader tariffs remain.

China has been NZ's largest trading partner since 2013—11 consecutive years. The relationship deepened dramatically after the 2008 FTA, with exports growing at 14.1% annually. In Q1 2025, total China-NZ trade reached $10.5 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year. However, China's slowing economy and increasing self-sufficiency in dairy create headwinds.

NZ's trade outlook is cautiously optimistic but volatile. Strong commodity prices, a weak NZ dollar, and new FTAs with the EU, UK, and UAE are tailwinds. But rising global protectionism, US tariff uncertainty, and China's slowing economy create significant headwinds. The government aims for 90% FTA coverage by 2030—India negotiations are the next major target.