Sector Overview

Horticulture

NZ agriculture's growth engine. Kiwifruit, wine, apples driving 19% export growth — the fastest of any primary sector. Target: double farmgate value by 2035.

$8.5B

Exports forecast (Jun 2025)

+19%

Growth YoY

$3.9B

Kiwifruit alone

~$10B

Forecast 2029

Kiwifruit — The Superstar

NZ's biggest horticulture earner. Record crops in 2024 and 2025, gold variety expansion driving export surge. Bay of Plenty dominates with 80%+ of production.

$3.9B

Export forecast

2024-25

14,500

Hectares planted

+32% in 10 years

2,804

Growers

producing ~175M trays

57%

Gold varieties

of planted area

Record Growth

Kiwifruit exports jumped 36% ($2.8B → $3.8B) in 2024, with 70%+ growth to the EU alone following tariff removal under the new FTA. Forecast to reach $4.3B by 2029.

Industry Structure

Zespri: Single-desk exporter (outside Australia)
15 companies with collaborative marketing programmes
Bay of Plenty: 80%+ of production
Recovered from Psa disease (detected 2010)

Key Markets

China: 27% of export value (#1)
EU: Surging post-FTA (tariff-free)
Japan: Premium market
Australia: HEA-licensed exporters

Wine — Marlborough's Dominance

Nearly 90% of production exported. Sauvignon Blanc (78% of output) built NZ's global wine reputation, though current oversupply is pressuring the industry.

$2.1B

Export revenue

Jun 2024 (↓11% YoY)

42,600

Hectares vineyard

~2,040 active vineyards

72%

In Marlborough

30,469 ha

67%

Sauvignon Blanc

of total area

Industry Challenge

Large vintages + declining global demand = wine surplus. 2024 vintage still in tanks at 2025 harvest. Exports down 11% in 2024. Rising costs, excise hikes, and import competition squeezing margins. But 2025 vintage quality "exceptional" — strong underlying demand for NZ premium wines expected to drive 3% growth.

Top Export Markets

US, UK, Australia

US #1 destination. UK growing fast post-FTA (+140% dairy, wine benefiting).

Varieties

67% / 13%

Sauvignon Blanc dominant. Pinot Noir #2 at 5,331 ha — premiumisation play.

Sustainability

98%

Of vineyard area certified under Sustainable Winegrowing NZ scheme.

Apples & Pears — The Billion-Dollar Milestone

Crossed $1B exports for the first time in 2025. Hawke's Bay and Gisborne recovering strongly from Cyclone Gabrielle devastation.

$1.1B

Export forecast

2024-25 (first time >$1B)

+18%

Growth YoY

volume + price gains

Hawke's Bay

Main region

recovering from Gabrielle

↑

Yield & profitability

2024 stabilisation

Cyclone Recovery

Hawke's Bay and Gisborne apple/pear growers faced huge losses from 2023 floods and Cyclone Gabrielle. Sector stabilised in 2024 with higher yields, higher profitability, and record export volumes — testament to grower resilience.

Other Crops

Vegetables, avocados, cherries, berries — diverse growth across the sector.

🥬 Vegetables

$770M

+8% forecast 2025. Frozen/processed products driving growth. Onions at decade-high export value. +400ha planted for export.

🥑 Avocados

$108M

+192% forecast 2025 as Cyclone Gabrielle recovery kicks in. Australia main market.

🍒 Cherries

$124M

+35% forecast. Premium product commanding strong prices in Asia.

🎃 Squash

$60M

+7% forecast. Traditional export to Japan and Korea.

Export Markets & Trade

EU and UK FTAs transforming market access. Kiwifruit tariff removal driving 70%+ export growth to Europe.

FTA Benefits

EU-NZ FTA: Kiwifruit tariff-free, wine duties falling
UK-NZ FTA: Dairy +140%, hort benefiting
Germany, Netherlands, Italy driving EU growth
Vegetable exports expected to boost further

Market Distribution

EU: +22.6% total exports (Mar 2025 YoY)
UK: +21.2% total exports
China: 27% of kiwifruit; wine/hort growing
US: Wine #1, +6.4% total (some tariff front-loading)

US Tariff Risk

Some importers front-loaded NZ product in early 2025 ahead of potential US tariffs. Direct and indirect impacts from US trade policy announcements expected to show up in later 2025 data. Global economic growth predicted to weaken, potentially reducing demand.

Outlook

Horticulture Action Plan targets doubling farmgate value by 2035. Sector surging toward $10B exports by 2029.

$8.6B

Forecast 2025-26

MPI projection

~$10B

Forecast 2029

if trends continue

2× by 2035

Farmgate target

Horticulture Action Plan

+19%

Fastest growth

of any primary sector

Growth Drivers

Kiwifruit gold variety expansion (new Zespri licenses)
EU/UK FTA market access
Record crop yields + quality
Premium positioning in key markets
Cyclone recovery in Hawke's Bay

Headwinds

Wine oversupply pressuring margins
US tariff uncertainty
Labour availability and costs
Climate events (drought, flood risk)
Highly productive land protection debates

Policy Support

Government's proposed changes to National Policy Statement for Highly Productive Land — recognising national importance of vegetable production and enabling water storage — welcomed by HortNZ as positive step for sector growth.